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Exit Polls Show UPA Ahead
AICC

By ugesh sarkar, Section Top Stories
Posted on Thu May 14, 2009 at 02:38:25 AM EST

Exit and opinion polls gave the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) an edge over the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 15th general elections to the Lok Sabha. But they also predicted that both alliances would need more help from fresh partners to make the halfway mark of 272 in a 545-member Lok Sabha.

In the 2004 general elections, no exit poll managed to predict the result accurately. All polls gave the NDA an edge, whereas it was the UPA that formed the government.

All major television channels commission polls ahead of elections as a matter of course. Over the years, this has raised questions on the fairness of the electoral exercise. As a result, Supreme Court and Election Commission restricted these, to prevent colouring the judgment of voters in a phased election; the clamps ended today. At the close of voting, all major television surveys said both major combinations would have to contend with a hung House.

The number of seats required to make up the 272 shortfall was considerable for both alliances, ranging from 40 to 60 seats, leaving political circles agog with the possibility of political realignments.

On its own, the Congress won 145 seats in the 2004 elections and the BJP 138. The Left parties with 61 seats, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with 24 seats and the Samajwadi Party with 36 seats were among the allies that helped the UPA form a government in 2004.

Source: Business-standard Exit polls show UPA ahead

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In 2009, these major UPA allies have banded into a separate front with other new partners, some from the rival NDA. The Third Front, led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist), declared that it will neither support the Congress nor the BJP.

The "Fourth Front", comprising the Samajwadi Party, the RJD and the Lok Janashakti Party, has given veiled indications that it will help the UPA but is yet to reveal the terms of the compromise.

Internal assessments by the political parties themselves are predictable. On the basis of the seats the present UPA allies bring to the table, the Congress is giving the alliance 205 seats and the NDA 168 seats. In the internal assessment of the BJP, the NDA will get 220 seats and the UPA 170 seats.

A pre-election India Today opinion poll predicted 190 to 199 seats for the UPA, far below the 222 seats it won five years ago. The survey said the BJP-led NDA will get between 172 and 181 seats, short of the 187 seats it won in 2004.

Acting on a Supreme Court okay, the Election Commission had banned the dissemination of results of opinion polls 48 hours before the end of the poll in case of single-phase election, and put a blanket ban on exit polls till the last lap in the event of multi-phase elections.

The commission had taken a similar decision a couple of years ago but was overturned by the apex court then.

< 2009 VOTE - CAPITAL CALCULUS - End Of The Marathon In Sight; All Eyes On Alliances

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