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HARD CHOICE: Women's Bill: Cong In Bind ,If Passed, Party Will Lose Allies It May Need Later
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By ugesh sarkar, Section Top Stories
Posted on Sat Mar 06, 2010 at 02:31:57 AM EST

When the Centre takes up the women's reserva- tion bill on Monday -- the cen- tenary of International Women's Day -- it won't worry about get- ting the numbers to pass the bill in the Rajya Sabha or even in the Lok Sabha later. With the Left and the BJP's support, the numbers are assured.

But Prime Minister Man- mohan Singh will have to worry about whether he will be able to run his government for the next four years after alienating some of the parties supporting the UPA from outside -- the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Samajwadi Party (SP) and pos- sibly even the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which are implaca- bly opposed to passing the bill.

These parties have 27 MPs in the 245-member Rajya Sabha (effective strength 233) and 46 in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
Their withdrawal of support would leave the UPA with 274 members in the Lok Sabha (excluding Speaker Meira Kumar and Madhu Koda, who is in jail).

With 272 members needed for a majority, any further loss in numbers could make the passing of financial bills, includ- ing the Budget, harder in the Lok Sabha.

Source: Hindustan Times HARD CHOICE: Women's Bill: Cong In Bind ,If Passed, Party Will Lose Allies It May Need Later

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Not surprisingly, on Thursday, Parliamentary Affairs Minister P.K. Bansal hosted a dinner to woo independent MPs like Kirori Lal, Kalyan Singh, Jaswant Singh, R. Shetty, Digvijay Singh, Tarun Mandal and Jaya Prada.

"Opponents to the bill that seeks to give 33 per cent seats to women in the Lok Sabha and assemblies know we will be left with a thin majority in the Lower House," said a Congressman.
"This is where they can put pressure on us. But we have to call their bluff," the Congres- sman added. He admitted, "Our dependence will grow on the 13 single member parties in the House."

In the future, the Congress can, of course, boost its num- bers by splitting parties.

Most parties have already issued a whip to their MPs to be present in the Rajya Sabha on Monday. But the big ques- tion is whether the bill can be passed despite the backing of 152 UPA, Left and BJP MPs and some additional support from others. "It all depends to what extent the anti-bill parties go,'' said a Union minister.

To pass a Constitution amendment bill, some kind of order is needed to record the votes of MPs. Will Lalu Prasad's RJD, Mulayam Singh Yadav's SP or Sharad Yadav's JD(U), who want a sub quota for OBCs and minorities, allow this? They have not done so in the past.

"There will be a war on the issue,'' warned the RJD's Lalu, who met the PM to seek an all- party meet for a consensus.

"It's too late for that," the Congress leader said. During the day, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee spoke to Mulayam Singh, known for his antipathy to the women's bill.

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